Maple Leafs Win 2026 NHL Draft Lottery, Get First No. 1 Pick Since 2016

The Maple Leafs hold the No. 1 pick for the first time since 2016. That's the headline.

The rest of the first round is where things get genuinely interesting.

The last time they did, they took Auston Matthews with the first pick in 2016. He turned into exactly what the franchise needed. Now the Leafs are back at the table with another chance to reshape the core of the team. This is the kind of pick that changes a team's trajectory for years.

McKenna Leads a Deep Top Tier

Penn State left wing Gavin McKenna is the projected No. 1 selection.

He had a strong freshman season, showcasing his scoring ability. The tools are real.

Sharks, Canucks, and Blackhawks follow with picks 2 through 4, and the consensus is solid through that tier. Scouts like what they see in the top prospects. Multiple scouts describe this as a draft with real depth up top, the kind of year where a team can walk away with a difference-maker without reaching.

The draft happens June 26 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo. First round starts at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+. Rounds 2-7 go the next day at 11 a.m. ET on NHLN and ESPN+.

If you're a fan of a team picking in the top 10, clear your calendar.

Why Pick 5 Is Where Everything Breaks Open

Here's the thing: starting with the New York Rangers at No. 5, scout opinions vary widely on who the best available player actually is. This is the real story of the 2026 draft.

The top four picks are largely settled.

After that, it gets murky fast. Some scouts prefer one player; others have a completely different prospect ranked fifth. That kind of disagreement at a specific draft slot is unusual and makes the evening more interesting than a simple read of the board would suggest. Teams picking 5 through 15 are essentially drafting based on their own board, not a shared industry consensus.

For Rangers fans, this means the front office has real choices to make.

The decision at five will reveal a lot about how the organization sees its roster needs and timeline.

The Matthews Echo and What Comes Next

The last time Toronto picked first overall, the Maple Leafs selected Auston Matthews in 2016. He became a franchise cornerstone and one of the best players in the league.

The comparison to the current draft class isn't exact. But the situation has a similar feel: a storied franchise getting a top prospect at a pivotal moment.

McKenna enters as a consensus top talent expected to step into a major role.

Whether he becomes the next Matthews-level asset depends on development, opportunity, and the usual variables. But the upside is real.

Late First-Round Picks Tell Stories Too

The draft order didn't just happen. It was shaped by playoff results and prior trades.

Ottawa holds the final pick at No. 32 as part of a penalty for a previous trade.

That trade was voided due to a contractual issue. The Senators are still paying the price four years later.

These picks aren't throwaway selections. Late first-rounders can become real assets. The trade history matters since it tells you which organizations have ammunition to move up or are picking purely for value.

What to Watch Thursday Night

Buffalo, June 26, 7 p.m.

ET, ESPN and ESPN+. The lottery winners are set. The top four prospects are identified. But the real drama starts at pick five where the industry can't agree.

If you bleed for a team in the back half of the first round, that's your window. The consensus ends right where your team's pick begins.